Trump Won, the American Media Got It All Wrong — Now How Is the World Reacting?

Social networks and live news are available at any hour, and yet the gulf between one group of people and another has only grown wider.

At 15:43 Beijing time on November 9, Donald Trump took his 276th electoral vote, pushing his total past the 270 required by law, and was elected the 45th president of the United States in the country's 58th quadrennial presidential election. Hillary Clinton took 228 electoral votes in all.

Meanwhile, the popular-vote count shifted.

As of 9 a.m. Beijing time on November 10, Hillary Clinton had passed Trump in the popular vote. The two were close: about 59.86 million votes for Clinton against roughly 59.63 million for Trump, a ratio of 47.7 to 47.5. It resembles the 2000 election, when the eventual winner, Republican George W. Bush, took more electoral votes while the Democrat, Al Gore, took more of the popular vote. It will not change this result.

After the win, Trump gave a victory speech: "Although the election is over, the work we did it for has only just begun."

The Associated Press reported that Hillary Clinton had called Trump to concede that he had been elected the next president of the United States.

The result went far beyond what most American polling firms, media outlets and Wall Street investors had expected.

Much like the surprise of the Brexit referendum before it. Once again, the media, the economists and the entrepreneurs turned out to be out of touch with the hundreds of millions of people they share a country with.

The American Media Has Completely Lost Touch With the Public

Four hours before the polls closed, The New York Times still had Hillary Clinton's chance of winning at 85%. FiveThirtyEight, the data site that has correctly called many elections and sporting events, put her odds at 71.4% in a forecast published 15 hours before the vote.

It wasn't only liberal outlets that believed Clinton would win. Even The Wall Street Journal, a longtime supporter of Republicans and the source of editorial after editorial attacking Clinton, released a poll with NBC, one of America's three major networks, that gave Clinton 44% and Trump only 40%.

Even Fox, the conservative network fully behind Trump, forecast three days before the vote that Clinton would take 45% and Trump 40%.

So much for the objective polls. Where outlets spoke in their own voice, the verdict on Trump was harsher still. Among America's 50 highest-circulation newspapers, exactly one — a Las Vegas paper quietly controlled by a casino owner — endorsed Trump on its editorial page. Every other paper either backed Clinton, stayed neutral, or backed a third-party candidate.

Trump did not win as easily as Obama did twice before. Obama's victories came at almost exactly 12:00 Beijing time in 2008 and around 12:15 in 2012. Trump's was effectively settled at 12:00, when Ohio, a state the Democrats had traditionally held, flipped to him, but the final result took more than two hours longer.

And he won thoroughly. The 50 states hold 538 electoral votes between them, allocated by population, and Trump took most of them. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Florida — states where the Democrats traditionally had the advantage — all went his way.

Once the result had settled, this is what the front pages and covers of America's print press looked like:

In the Investment World, an Uncertain Future Sent Most Markets Plunging — the Dow Fell Further in Points Than It Did After 9/11

Every index tied to America was falling

The dollar index has fallen steadily since 9 this morning and is now down 1.43%, at 96.4783. Crude oil, priced in dollars, fell hard too: Brent futures down more than 2.52% and WTI light crude futures more than 2.74%.

Futures on the three major U.S. stock indexes — the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq — fell 3.08%, 3.68% and 4.15%. In the morning the Dow's point decline briefly exceeded what the market did on the night of the September 11 attacks, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures touched the 5% circuit-breaker level intraday. As the picture cleared in the afternoon, the panic eased a little.

Most markets around the world were falling

Markets in a number of countries moved on what they read into Trump's positions. Because he had said during the campaign that he would build a wall on the border with Mexico to keep illegal immigrants out, the Mexican peso fell more than 11%, a record low against the dollar.

Among America's allies in Asia, Japan's stock market fell more than 6% at one point, its lowest in nearly three months. South Korea's fell more than 3%, a four-month low. Both had recovered some ground by the close.

China's stock market took it calmly. The Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes were down more than 1% before the morning close; by the close the loss had narrowed to 0.6%.

FTSE China A50 index futures, traded mainly by overseas investors and tracking Chinese securities, fell as much as 2.3% at one point before narrowing to 0.95%.

What went up were the safe havens

They say you buy gold when war comes. Gold futures were one of the few important commodities still rising. Worried about what the American election would do to stocks, investors bought gold as a hedge; COMEX gold was up more than 3% as of this writing.

The euro and the yen, which share gold's safe-haven character and move closely with the dollar on currency markets, rose more than 2% in response, the euro posting its biggest one-day gain in nearly a year.

A-shares, absurd as ever

China's stock market took it calmly. The Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes were down more than 1% before the morning close, and by the afternoon close the loss had narrowed to around 0.6%. FTSE China A50 index futures, which track Chinese securities, fell as much as 2.3% at one point.

One rather absurd case: Chuandazhisheng, whose name sounds close to Chuanpu, the other Chinese rendering of Trump's name, closed up 6.35%. The same thing happened on November 7, 2012: the moment Obama's re-election was announced, shares in the appliance maker Aucma, whose Chinese name is one character off from Obama's, jumped 5% right after the afternoon session opened.

19:00 update on financial and commodity markets

The result also went beyond what many investors and institutions expected, and it sent a wave of panic through the markets.

Once the final count was in, though, the declines and gains across financial and commodity markets worldwide narrowed. Trump declared that the most urgent task now was to rebuild the country and remake the American dream.

Paul Markham, a portfolio manager at Newton Investment Management, said those words did something to settle market sentiment.

S&P, Nasdaq and Dow futures pulled their losses back to 2.17%, 2.45% and 1.97%. With the stock market not yet open, The Wall Street Journal estimated the S&P 500 would open down around 1.9%, far more than the 0.9% average decline of the trading days before the election.

If so, the S&P 500 would still do better than the 3.6% it lost the day after the Brexit vote, or the 9% it lost in the global financial crisis.

"When I sensed Trump's chances of winning were rising, I ran into the office to warn clients," said James Butterfill, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities in London.

The safe havens — gold futures, the euro, the yen — spiked and fell back. Gold now stands at $1,306 an ounce, up 2.51%; the euro's and the yen's gains against the dollar have eased to 0.67% and 1.96%.

The dollar index has traced a V since one in the afternoon, but is still down 0.7%, at 97.29.

Oil, a risk asset, was sold off as Trump's chances of winning improved. It has since bottomed out and turned positive again. Brent is at $46.17, WTI light crude at $45.71.

These Charts Show Who Voted for Whom

The New York Times collected and sorted the votes from this election, grouping voters by gender, race, education, income and other dimensions. Space is limited, so we have picked out part of the data to share here.

Blue in the charts is the share of voters who chose Clinton; red is the share who chose Trump.

Gender and race first. Men leaned toward Trump, women toward Clinton.

Among racial groups, white voters said they preferred Trump by 55 to 37; Black, Hispanic/Latino, Asian and smaller minority groups gave more of their votes to Clinton.

Next, age and education. Voters aged 18-29 and 30-44 preferred Clinton; voters over 45 preferred Trump.

Voters whose schooling stopped at high school, and holders of associate degrees (a credential particular to the U.S. and Canada, for two years of college coursework short of a bachelor's), liked Trump more. Those with a bachelor's degree or above liked Clinton more.

By income, voters making under $49,999 a year backed Clinton more; above that line, middle- and higher-income voters split evenly between the two.

In places with 50,000 residents or more, people declared their love for Clinton by a wide margin. In small towns and some outer suburbs it was exactly the reverse: they preferred Trump.

Now political outlook and religion. Liberals backed Clinton by an overwhelming 84 to 10, and moderates also leaned her way. Among conservatives it flipped, to an equally lopsided 81 to 15 for Trump.

On religion, Protestants, Christians and Catholics clearly favored Trump. Jewish voters, people of other faiths and voters with no religion favored Clinton.

Next, the breakdown by marital status and sexual orientation, plus which candidate people in the military preferred.

Married people favored Trump. The LGBT community, predictably, supported Clinton.

People who had served in the military favored Trump.

Finally, those who thought the country was going in the right direction voted for Clinton; those who thought it was a mess voted for Trump.

What Party Leaders and People Around the World Are Saying

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang said: We are following the final result of the American election, and we look forward to working with the new U.S. administration to promote the sustained, healthy and stable development of China-U.S. relations, for the benefit of both peoples and of the world.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sent Trump a message congratulating him on winning the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party, Russia's second-largest party, said: I believe the sanctions against Russia will not happen.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe thought the race was far closer than expected. His aide Takeo Kawamura said the prime minister spent the voting hours in his office, watching. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga restated the security alliance between the Japanese and American governments.

South Korean Unification Ministry spokesperson Jeong Joon-hee said at a regular briefing on the 9th that whoever became the next American president, the South Korean government would keep strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance, and that North Korea must not misjudge the alliance's readiness and solidity in the slightest.

British Prime Minister Theresa May congratulated Trump on his victory and said the UK and the U.S. would maintain their strong and close partnership.

Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder of France's far-right National Front, expressed his support for Trump on Twitter.

German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen called the result a "huge shock"; a member of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee said, "Geopolitically, we are in a very uncertain situation."

Australian far-right leader Pauline Hanson said: Mr. President, my door is always open to you, congratulations.

Far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders also congratulated Trump: The people have taken their country back.

Most countries in the Middle East had little to say. Political analysts had said beforehand that whoever took office, the outcome would not be a satisfying one for Arab countries.

Israeli politician Yehuda Glick said: The governing right-wing Likud party welcomes the result. It seems Americans are tired of hypocrisy and political correctness, and prefer people who speak plainly.

Palestinian analyst Hani Habib: Betting on either candidate would have been a losing bet.

After six years of war, many Syrians have gone numb to everything. An activist living in Aleppo said: George W. Bush and Obama brought al-Qaeda and ISIS to the Middle East; Mr. Trump will bring "aliens."

Cubans worry about Trump taking office, because he had said he would reverse the opening of normal relations between the U.S. and Cuba.

Plenty of people worried on Twitter and Facebook that once Trump was president he would stop them from visiting relatives or friends in America.

What Is Everyone Talking About on Twitter?

The talk on Twitter is about how to emigrate somewhere else.

Over the past few hours the most-discussed topic on Twitter worldwide has been "Election Night". No surprise there. What is interesting is that Canada also climbed the trending list, with more than 1.1 million tweets; the related search terms were "immigrate to Canada," "I'm moving to Canada," "Canadian border" ...

1. ElectionNight

2. Van Jones (the CNN host; he called this a "whitelash" in a country that was changing)

3. President Trump

4. Pennsylvania for Trump (Pennsylvania is a traditionally Democratic state)

5. Cali (nickname for California, which had just legalized marijuana that day)

6. Calexit (California should secede, after the model of Brexit)

7. LGBTQ

8. Wisconsin for Trump

9. Richard Engel (the NBC host, who called Trump's election a huge disaster)

10. ImStillWithHer (a hashtag in support of Hillary)

What Is Everyone Searching for on Google?

Google's trending searches were buried in election news. Of the top ten, only two — the British pound and marijuana — had nothing to do with the presidential race. Trump came up again and again among the election-related keywords; Hillary was mentioned once.

1. U.S. presidential election 2016

2. Markets, United States, presidential election 2016

3. British pound, United Kingdom

4. Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump presidential race

5. Donald Trump, Louisiana, U.S. presidential election 2016

6. Marijuana, California

7. Donald Trump, Associated Press

8. Pat Toomey, U.S. senator, Pennsylvania, Republican

9. Fox News, Donald Trump, Megyn Kelly (journalist)

10. Donald Trump, Tennessee, Republican, Election Day

11. U.S. Congress, Republican

12. Barack Obama, Donald Trump

What Are the Most-Watched Videos on YouTube Saying?

YouTube draws more than a billion viewers a month, and late-night talk shows of every kind post free clips there to pull in an audience. Almost none of these hosts supported Trump.

1. A video mocking the film X-Men: Apocalypse, nothing to do with the election.

2. A video of someone playing with a hamster, nothing to do with the election.

3. Vote: It's Time! — Stephen Colbert's late-night show, with Jon Stewart along to urge people to vote; both oppose Trump.

4. Let Hillary Be Hillary, a video from Samantha Bee's talk show Full Frontal supporting Hillary.

5. A video of a reporter wearing a Muslim headscarf to fool a polling station.

6. A Casually Explained video about how the channel makes its videos, nothing to do with the election.

7. A Story of US Election 2016, Benedict Cumberbatch and James Corden making fun of the election and urging people to vote. The segment mocked both candidates but was harder on Trump, and predicted a Clinton win.

8. A video asking for donations, nothing to do with the election.

9. The End of Election 2016, a video Late Night with Seth Meyers released before the vote; Meyers also opposes Trump.

10. A Fox News report on a coming "civil war" inside the Republican Party.

Go down to the thirty most-watched videos and, apart from two or three ordinary news clips about Trump, every election video was either attacking him or urging people to get out and vote.

How the Famous Reacted

The tech world

Microsoft founder Bill Gates: What we should take from this election: we are living in two different countries.

Steven Sinofsky, the former Microsoft executive, re-pinned a tweet from June this year:

To ignore even a single voter in a democratic system is to endanger the safety of democracy. — JFK

Tech outlet The Verge: Brexit 2.0

Vox founder Ezra Klein: I hope Trump's campaign was only an act, and that he will turn into a different man for the sake of the country. But I am not optimistic.

Internet news blog Mashable: The British can breathe out. They are no longer the biggest fools in the world.

Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Netscape and of the Silicon Valley venture firm a16z: Retweeted "Peter Hill was right again. @sacca @mcuban @reidhoffman @pmarca What do you all think? Just saying #electionday #myvote2016 #SiliconValley"

Sam Altman, president of Y Combinator Group: I can't remember the last time I was this anxious. I have never felt this alone, even in a room full of people. Tonight we cry, we despair, we fear. Tomorrow we go back to work and rebuild the world we want.

TransferWise CEO and Skype's first employee, Taavet Hinrikus, retweeted the chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov: Americans saying they'll move to Canada if Trump wins are joking. People living in the Baltic region now seriously believe their countries and their people are in danger.

Time's 100 most influential people of 2016

Scientist Hope Jahren: If kissing a tardigrade — a water bear, say — would reverse this, I would do it.

Celebrated Mexican actor Gael García Bernal: Build your wall. History will announce your failure, and the failure of your plan to make Mexico pay for it. The cracks will remain. One more thing before I sleep: we will come back! We'll come back in the smallest of ways, and we will make it shine.

American actress and singer Ariana Grande: Florida, please, this is truly terrifying, I'm crying.

Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, said: Congratulations to President-elect @realDonaldTrump and Vice President-elect @mike_pence! We Republicans now hold the majority in both houses of Congress!

American women's rights campaigner Jaha Mapenzi Dukureh: My heart is broken today; I have never seen the press this sad. When we tell our children what happened in 2016, we will say we chose hate over love, and how we ended up on the side of racism and sexism.

American actor Chris Evans, who plays Captain America: This is an embarrassing night for America. We have let a monster of hatred lead this great nation. We have let a bully set our path forward. I'm devastated.

Nobel laureates

Nobel economics laureate Paul Krugman: America, I hardly know you anymore. I clearly misjudged this country. But as I have said, blaming each other does no good. Tomorrow the road goes on.

Wole Soyinka, winner of the 1986 Nobel Prize in Literature, had said that if Trump were elected he would cut up his green card.

Pulitzer Prize winners

Laurie Garrett: This is like living through Brexit in another form.

Editorial cartoonist Matt Davies: All the experts told us Hillary would win. Now someone answer me: why did Trump win?

J.K. Rowling, author of Harry Potter: Whatever happens, tonight will make history. Let it be kind. Please, let it be kind.

Johnson Parker: All the work, all the reporting and research, none of it matters now. What was the point?

Well-known figures from every field

Jeff Jarvis, journalism professor at the City University of New York: Fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck. Journalism is hopelessly finished, a total failure. Our profession failed to wake the public up, and they elected a fascist.

George Takei, who played Mr. Sulu on the Star Trek television series, said:

Unimaginable things like this have happened before; my family lived through it during World War II. We held each other close and came through. I kept our dignity, and our ideals, intact.

American actor Christopher Gorham: America's first African-American president is to be succeeded by a Klansman, and don't tell me this has nothing to do with race.

Wil Wheaton, who appeared on The Big Bang Theory: America, you may be about to become the most unimaginably frightening country in the world.

Well-known television producer Piers Morgan: Congratulations to our friend Donald Trump, an extraordinary achievement #President

Famous rapper Snoop Dogg posted a photo with the caption: America's worst day was 9/11, and its second-worst day is 11/9.

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban: We need to give President Trump a chance. Support the good decisions, lobby against the ones we don't agree with. Nothing is stronger than us together.

Kris Humphries, NBA player: Make America Great Again. (This was Trump's campaign slogan.)

Anti-American Arab-world journalist Abdel Bari Atwan: I expect no decency from him — this is a man full of racism, arrogance and lies.

Katy Perry fired off a run of tweets: The revolution is coming, rise up, power to the people.

If the comments above strike you as overwhelmingly anti-Trump, that is because if you go looking through the Nobel and Pulitzer lists, the Oscars, Time's rankings or the league tables of companies by market value, Trump supporters are genuinely hard to find.

The famous people willing to speak publicly did not all like Hillary Clinton, but very few of them were willing to back Trump. The same held from the press to the corporations to the experts in every field.

Some could not accept the values Trump talked about. Others, like the capital markets today, worried about what the uncertainty would do to their own position. In this election, they went to war.

Never have so many American entrepreneurs and technology leaders stepped forward to oppose a presidential candidate. And it has been decades since a candidate failed to win even one major newspaper's endorsement.

Plenty of ordinary people supported Trump on Twitter, but unless you followed the specific slogan hashtags, it was hard to see what they were saying. They were the silent majority, and their voices were buried by the famous and the press.

Only this election was not a contest of reach. It was a contest of actual votes. Which is why the media's expectations and the public's final choice came out as opposites.

As Gates put it, they were "living in two different countries."

Cover image: Visual China Group