730 Million People Spent 650 Billion Yuan Over the National Day Holiday — 9 Changes in How Chinese People Travel and Spend

Twenty years into the Golden Week, all kinds of change are showing up in holiday spending.

The National Day holiday that just ended is the week when Chinese people travel most intensively. In 2017, those few days accounted for 13% of the year's trips and more than a seventh of the year's travel spending.

This year's numbers are still staggering: 726 million trips inside China and 7 million trips abroad — the second-biggest human migration of the year after the Spring Festival rush. Together, domestic and outbound tourists spent around 650 billion yuan.

The scale is still enormous. But things are changing.

Ministry of Commerce data show that from October 1 to 7, retail and catering businesses nationwide took in about 1.4 trillion yuan, with average daily sales up 9.5% from last year's National Day golden week — the first time in a decade that figure has fallen below 10%. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism, six months old after its merger, put domestic tourist numbers for the seven days at 726 million, up 9.4% year-on-year — the first time since the financial crisis that domestic tourism growth has dropped below 10%.

People really are spending less on travel, and this year they clearly preferred destinations closer to home than they did last year. The income gap between people in their twenties and everyone over 30 showed up plainly in holiday travel spending, too. Beyond how much travelers were willing to pay, faster high-speed rail also had an effect. And the number of flights fell for the first time this year.

Politics and policy decide directly where Chinese tourists go. South Korea, which had vanished from the rankings last year, is back; the United States dropped to tenth.

Meanwhile, habits formed in big cities travel with people. Douyin says videos of users "checking in" at locations drew more than 20 billion views this year, making it the second-largest gathering place for travel check-ins after Moments. Data from Ele.me and the Ministry of Commerce both show food delivery spreading from the big cities into tourist sites.

Every change in the wider environment shows up in these spending figures, one by one.

Domestic Tourism Growth Falls Below 10% for the First Time Since the Financial Crisis

This year's National Day golden week was the first time growth in domestic tourist arrivals dropped into single digits. According to figures from the China Tourism Academy, over the past decade — except in 2013, when the financial crisis bit — year-on-year growth in domestic tourist arrivals had always topped 10%. This year it was 8.09%.

In 2017, National Day ran into the Mid-Autumn Festival for an eight-day break; this year the two holidays fell close together, which to some extent spread out the crowds. But last year's holiday was only one day longer, and domestic tourist arrivals grew 18.89% — hard to put all of that down to a single extra day off.

Analysts at CITIC Securities think the slowdown does partly reflect travel spending contracting as expectations for the economy weaken. Another reason for this year's slower growth is a bottleneck in the capacity of tourism facilities, which began to show three or four years ago.

A weak economy has made people more careful about travel spending, and bad trips have dampened the urge to take more.

Wu Wenxue, former deputy director of the National Tourism Administration, said that the absence of workable fixes for severe congestion getting to and around scenic areas has also suppressed the desire to travel during peak periods.

Outbound Travel Keeps Growing, But the Destinations Are Closer

Growth in the number of outbound trips barely changed this year: 7 million trips abroad, up 10%.

As for where people went, the boat that capsized off Phuket in July did nothing to cool enthusiasm for Thailand, still first in the top 10, with Japan close behind.

Ahead of the holiday, Thailand set up dedicated immigration lanes for Chinese tourists at five big international airports — Bangkok Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang, Chiang Mai, Phuket and Hat Yai — and Thai government departments worked with the navy to step up maritime patrols and early warning.

Hit by various recent conflicts, the United States — already a long and costly trip — fell from fifth last year to tenth this year.

Hong Kong rose from sixth last year to third.

The Guangzhou–Shenzhen–Hong Kong Express Rail Link opened along its full length just before National Day, one reason Hong Kong did so well over the holiday. During the break, 1,521,400 mainland tourists went to Hong Kong, up 10.38% from the same period last year; 650,000 of them arrived by high-speed rail.

The shifts in the rankings show that people clearly preferred closer destinations this year than last, and that policy mattered too.

After China resumed group tours to South Korea in late August, South Korea became this year's seventh most popular destination. Last year it wasn't in the top 10 at all.

Travel Spending Is Down, and Outbound Spending Fell by a Quarter

Companies that sell travel products like to say that Chinese tourists abroad are now putting their money into deeper, more experiential trips.

In its report on this year's National Day travel, Lvmama said more and more customers booking tailor-made tours asked for local experiences: "see a show at the Sydney Opera House," "watch a Premier League match in London," "hold a wedding ceremony in a church."

Trip.com Group also noted in its report the rise of "fun-seeker" Chinese tourists who go abroad for distinctive local activities, arts and culture programs, and outdoor sport and adventure.

But the money really did shrink. By Trip.com Group's count, Chinese outbound tourists spent 7,300 yuan a head this year, down markedly from 9,800 yuan last year.

Outbound spending is tied directly to destination: nearer places grew more popular, and return airfares and visas for them cost less.

A crackdown on daigou — personal shopping agents — in Beijing and Shanghai in late September and early October also hit a group of travelers who spend enormous sums.

Exchange rates played a part as well. With the yuan approaching 7 to the dollar and 100 to 88 against the Hong Kong dollar, people generally shopped more cautiously.

Per-capita spending during the golden week slipped too. By CITIC Securities' calculations, based on figures from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's data center, each domestic tourist spent 825 yuan this National Day, against 829 yuan last year.

Part of the reason was a coordinated round of ticket-price cuts at scenic spots before the holiday. According to China Tourism Academy data, visitor numbers at domestic natural-scenery attractions grew nicely, but revenue fell across the board, by varying amounts.

In all, 907 scenic spots nationwide cut prices over National Day, 159 of them 5A-rated, with cuts averaging about 20%. Mount Huangshan, for instance, received 189,600 visitors, up 10.38% year-on-year, while ticket revenue fell 11% to 30.61 million yuan.

Young People Really Are Poorer — Under-30s Are Less Than 20% of Independent Outbound Travelers

In data on independent outbound travel jointly released by Variflight and Skyscanner, people aged 30 to 40 made up 61.16% of the total. Those aged 20 to 30 accounted for just 19%.

People usually travel abroad on their own because they want better local entertainment and more freedom to plan the trip — even though flights, hotels and attraction tickets all cost more than a package tour.

Travelers under 30 are less than 20% of independent outbound tourists, mainly because they are poorer. The bulk of people leaving the mainland on their own are still 30 to 40 years old, at 60%.

By destination, those born in the 1990s went most often to Thailand; those born in the 1980s and 1970s went most often to Japan and Singapore.

Counting only the basics — return airfare, food and lodging, attraction tickets, visas, local transport — a week in Thailand can be done for about 3,000 yuan a head, Japan takes about 6,500 to 7,000 yuan, and even a frugal trip to Singapore needs around 10,000 yuan. Japan and Singapore also suit big-ticket shopping better than Thailand does.

And Independent Outbound Travel Is Still Basically a Thing for Those Four Big Cities

Data jointly released by Variflight and Skyscanner — the international flight-booking platform Trip.com Group bought — show that travelers from tier-1 and new tier-1 cities account for nearly 90% of independent outbound travel. The four tier-1 cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen alone take 74.35% of it, though their permanent residents are only about 5% of China's population.

Perhaps because of visas, mainland tourists generally start planning and buying outbound tickets two to four months before they go. Travelers from Beijing and Chongqing plan furthest ahead, buying their tickets a full four months out.

The Number of Flights Actually Flown Fell for the First Time in Five Years

According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China, on the first day of this year's National Day holiday, airports nationwide dispatched more than 16,000 flights carrying over 1.83 million passengers, with both flights and passengers growing more than 10% year-on-year.

The momentum did not last the week. Route data from Variflight show that 82,620 domestic flights actually took off during this year's golden week, and 17,848 international flights (including Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) departed from mainland airports — down 9% and 5% from last year. Passengers came to 12.227 million, also down about 6%.

Airlines plan their route maps and capacity a year at a time, and using past and current booking data they decide weeks or even months ahead whether to add or cut capacity for special periods such as the National Day golden week. That they put fewer flights in the air this year means consumer demand for travel was lower than a year ago.

One argument is that last year's eight-day golden week simply gave flight statistics a bigger base than this year's seven days. But a traveler who flew home on the second-to-last day of last year's holiday was never going to buy another ticket and fly out again on the last day, so you cannot take an average, subtract a day and compare, the way you can with catering spending.

Su Baoliang, an analyst at Sinolink Securities, thinks that besides the macroeconomic and consumption slowdown, an important reason civil aviation figures fell this golden week is that the Mid-Autumn Festival siphoned travelers off. People making long trips, especially abroad, tended to join the two holidays together, so part of their travel fell outside the National Day count. Domestic short-trip travelers may also have gone during the shorter Mid-Autumn break to avoid the crush at popular attractions.

Among this year's busiest domestic and international routes, Shenzhen Bao'an to Shanghai Hongqiao and Shanghai Pudong to Hong Kong Chek Lap Kok came first on their respective lists.

Beijing Capital–Shanghai Hongqiao gave up the top spot for domestic flight volume for the first time since 2015, while Shenzhen Bao'an–Shanghai Hongqiao shot up out of nowhere — probably because travelers were routing through Shenzhen on their way to Hong Kong. The South China Morning Post reported that over the first five days of the golden week, an average of 77,000 passengers a day entered Hong Kong on the Guangzhou–Shenzhen–Hong Kong Express Rail Link. Hong Kong restaurants near the Shenzhen crossings benefited as well: Lankeng Restaurant in San Tin saw revenue jump over the week.

Flights Fell for the First Time, Partly Because Rail Took the Passengers

Figures compiled by China's Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Culture and Tourism show that during this year's golden week the railways carried 131 million passengers in total, an average of 13.06 million a day, up 10.8% year-on-year — clearly faster growth than aviation's. Forty-four high-speed lines, including Beijing–Shanghai, Shanghai–Kunming, Chengdu–Chongqing and the Guangzhou–Shenzhen intercity, set single-day passenger records for the first time since they opened.

Across the holiday, China's railways ran an average of 8,434 passenger trains a day, 1,130 more than a year earlier — the most capacity ever scheduled.

And unlike the elaborate paperwork airlines face to add flights, China Railway Corporation and the regional railway bureaus can draw up plans for extra trains just a day ahead when crowds surge.

On the 7th, for example, the Pearl River Delta hit its peak of returning travelers, and Guangzhou Railway Group added 136 trains that day, mostly toward North and East China, including 10 extra overnight sleeper EMU services to Beijing and Shanghai. The return of the 350-km/h Fuxing trains on the Beijing–Shanghai high-speed line is also seen as a big reason passengers were pulled off the Beijing–Shanghai air route, which indirectly pushed airlines to cut capacity on China's busiest flight corridor.

But rail is still rail. Under the strain, the G6288 from Handan to Tianjin on October 5 sold tickets for 16 cars and, because of a rolling-stock problem, ran with only 8 — a farce in which the people holding tickets stood the whole way and got no compensation.

Checking In Is Still the Most Important Part of a Chinese Trip, and Beijing Got the Most Check-Ins

A Douyin report shows that over the holiday, users posted 1.7 times as many location-tagged "check-in" videos as usual. In seven days the platform carried more than 10 million check-in videos, with total views above 20 billion. Beijing was the country's top check-in location, with close to 1 billion views, nearly 200 million ahead of second-place Chengdu.

Before the holiday, Beijing's check-in videos ranked behind Chongqing, Xi'an and Chengdu in views. On National Day itself, views of Beijing check-in videos on Douyin passed 200 million, twice as many as second-place Shanghai.

A WeChat data report shows that seven of the top 10 overseas check-in spots on Moments were in Hong Kong: Victoria Harbour, Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong International Airport and others. The Chinese traveler who went farthest set out from Shenzhen and left a Moments check-in at the Hill of Seven Colors in Argentina.

A Tujia report shows that checking in is part of why young people stay in homestays. Over the long holiday, 7.5% of users born in the 1980s slept in a different homestay every night, and 51.8% stayed in more than three; among those born in the 1990s, 8.1% changed homestay every night and 65.4% stayed in more than three.

Apps built for check-in culture climbed the download charts accordingly. Qimai Data reported that the selfie app Qingyan Camera held the No. 1 spot on the App Store all seven days, with Douyin and the game PUBG behind it.

And the Habit of Ordering Delivery Went to the Tourist Sites Too

Eating well matters when you are away from home. A report from Trip.com Group's Gourmet List said that before National Day, restaurant bookings made through the Gourmet List rose nearly 300% from the previous month, and that 90% of travelers booked ahead because they feared holiday crowds would leave no tables.

Data Ele.me released on October 6 show that during this year's National Day holiday, food-delivery orders rose 71.6% year-on-year in Beijing, 40.1% in Shanghai, 58% in Guangzhou and 44.3% in Shenzhen. Against the same period in 2017, Guiyang grew fastest, at 174.3%.

Plenty of those orders were placed at popular attractions. During breakfast hours on October 1 and 2, 1,914 servings of hot dry noodles went to Hubu Alley in Wuhan and 1,521 lunch orders to the Broken Bridge in Hangzhou; at dinner time, 1,905 hot-pot orders went to hotels around Hongyadong in Chongqing; and after midnight, 1,626 orders of rou jia mo went to hotels near the Drum Tower in Xi'an.

JD.com's post-holiday golden week data show that sales of well-known local specialties tied to famous tourist spots at home and abroad — Horqin beef jerky, Chengdu Shuangliu Laoma rabbit heads, Wutai Mountain mushroom sauce, Thai latex pillows — rose about 60% year-on-year over the week.

And so, amid all these changes, this year's National Day holiday ended.

Charts/Gong Fangyi

Cover image/Visual China Group